July 24, 2021

कोरोना इफ़ेक्ट : लॉकडाउन से भारत की विकास दर में हो सकती है 2.5 फीसदी की गिरावट

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नयी दिल्ली: एक ओर देश की इकोनामी पहले ही मंदी की शिकार है, और अब कोरोना वायरस से बचाव के लिए देश में 21 दिनों का लॉकडाउन, इससे भारत की  अर्थव्यवस्था को झटका लगना तय है. इस मामले में बार्कलेज की रिपोर्ट में लॉकडाउन से भारत के विकास दर में गिरावट की बात की की गई है.

ब्रिटेन की वित्तीय कंपनी बार्कलेज की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार तीन सप्ताह के लॉकडाउन से कैलेंडर ईयर 2020 में भारत की जीडीपी विकास दर में 2.5 फीसदी की गिरावट हो है. हालांकि पहले बार्कलेज का अनुमान था कि 2020 में भारत में  4.5 फीसदी ग्रोथ रेट रहेगी.    बार्कलेज की इस रिपोर्ट के अनुसार लॉकडाउन से भारत की अर्थव्यवस्था को बड़ा झटका लगेगा.

 ब्रिटेन की वित्तीय कंपनी बार्कलेज की रिपोर्ट

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हालांकि ये भी रिपोर्ट में जिक्र है कि हालात पर नियंत्रण के लिए भारत सरकार लॉकडाउन को एक सप्ताह के लिए और बढ़ा सकती है यानि कुल लॉकडाउन चार सप्ताह का रहेगा और फिर 8 सप्ताह आंशिक लॉकडाउन भी हो सकता है. अगर ऐसा हुआ तो अर्थव्यवस्था को 120 अरब डॉलर नुकसान का अनुमान है. हालांकि तीन हफ्ते के लॉकडाउन से ही 90 अरब डॉलर का नुकसान हो सकता है जो जीडीपी का 4 फीसदी है.

अब देखा जाये तो जीडीपी विकास दर में 2 फीसदी अंक की की कमी हो सकती है. इसे देखते हुए बार्कलेज ने भारत का  विकास दर अनुमान 4.5 फीसदी घटाकर 2.5 फीसदी कर दिया है. अब अगर ऐसा ही हुआ तो 1992 के आर्थिक सुधारों के बाद ये देश में सबसे कम ग्रोथ रेट होगा. वही अन्य रेटिंग एजेंसियों के साथ आईएमएफ और वर्ल्ड बैंक ने भी भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था के लिए निराशाजनक अनुमान लगाए हैं.

इस बारे में वर्ल्ड बैंक ने 2020-21 में विकास दर 3.5 फीसदी रहने का अनुमान लगाया है. बैंक के अनुसार भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था 1991 में 1.06 फीसदी की गति से बढ़ी था. उसके बाद ही देश में आर्थिक सुधार किये गए थे.

होगा काफी व्यापक असर

वैसे विकास दर कम होने से काफी व्यापक असर होगा. जानकारी के अनुसार विकास दर गिरने पर कंपनियां भी अपना ग्रोथ अनुमान घटाती हैं. इससे कॉस्ट कटिंग के साथ वेतन में भी कम वृद्धि होती है और छंटनी भी होती है. इस बारे में 25 मार्च को ही गोएयर ने कहा है कि उसके कर्मचारियों के मार्च के वेतन में कटौती होगी. कंपनी के सीईओ के अनुसार यात्रा प्रतिबंधों के चलते  उनके पास दूसरे विकल्प नहीं है.

जी20 देश भी हो सकते है मंदी का शिकार

हालांकि कोरोना वायरस के संकट के चलते वैश्विक रेटिंग एजेंसी मूडीज ने भी जी20 देशों में मंदी का अनुमान लगाया है.  मूडीज ने बुधवार को जी-20 समूह देशों में इस साल मंदी का अनुमान लगाया है. मूडीज के अनुमान के अनुसार जी-20 समूह देशों का सब मिलाकर सकल घरेलू उत्पाद 2020 में 0.5 प्रतिशत घटेगी. इसमें अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था में दो प्रतिशत और यूरोजोन (यूरो को मुद्रा के तौर पर अपनाने वाले देश) की अर्थव्यवस्था में 2.2 फीसदी की गिरावट होगी. जी20 में भारत के साथ ऑस्ट्रेलिया, ब्राजील, कनाडा, चीन, फ्रांस, जर्मनी, जापान, रूस, सऊदी अरब, साउथ कोरिया, अमेरिका और ब्रिटेन जैसे देश हैं.


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